Clear View of Police Using AI to Jail an Innocent Woman

Police in North Dakota used AI to put an innocent elderly woman in jail. Angela Lipps was seized for a crime she didn’t have anything to do with, then detained unjustly for months destroying her life.

She was babysitting four children on July 14 when a team of U.S. Marshals arrested her at gunpoint. She was booked into her local county jail as a fugitive from justice in North Dakota. But Lipps says she had never been to North Dakota…

How?

A surveillance photo was injected into AI and apparently Fargo police believed an unreliable, untrustworthy machine output would be easier for them to arrest someone with than doing basic detective work.

Every news story about this case is saying “facial recognition software” is to blame. None of them will admit a vendor, let alone a model. The widespread silence is very suspicious.

Fargo Police Chief Dave Zibolski announced his sudden retirement the same week the story broke. Back in September 2025 he told InForum that his department “does not have facial recognition technology”. He then went on to say they rely on “local, state and federal partners that may use this technology in assisting FPD with our investigations.”

Ok Zibolski. Big clue.

That statement came months after the April-May 2025 investigation that used facial recognition to charge Lipps with eight felonies. Months after his detectives signed an affidavit of probable cause built on a bullshit piece of software claiming a match.

Telling the truth, technically, has become exactly the problem with the AI adherents. They are expressing loyalty to their church, even when it means the denial of basic reality.

State Systems Aren’t a Match

North Dakota has a facial recognition photo repository operated by the Bureau of Criminal Investigation under the Attorney General’s office. A 2017 FBI Memorandum of Understanding, published by the House Oversight Committee, describes the contents: mugshots, corrections photos, and North Dakota state driver’s license photos. The system exists to compare probe photos against that state-based repository.

Angela Lipps is from Tennessee. See the obvious problem?

She has no criminal record in North Dakota. She has never held a North Dakota driver’s license. Her face is not in that database. The state system physically cannot return her as a match.

So we know Fargo police used something outside the BCI repository.

Breadcrumbs in Court Documents

According to records obtained by WDAY through an open records request, Fargo police ran surveillance images through facial recognition software that returned Angela Lipps as the match. The detective used Lipps’ social media accounts and her Tennessee driver’s license photo as the finding. The charging document states that she appeared to be the suspect based on facial features, body type, hairstyle and hair color.

Two details matter a lot here. First, the software confidently matched a surveillance image from a Fargo bank to a woman in Tennessee with no North Dakota connections and no criminal history. That confidence is completely unfounded. Second, the detective went to her social media profiles immediately after receiving the match. He went there because the software pointed him there. I know that move, and it has a specific behavioral signature.

The Evidence Table

When I think about the commercial facial recognition product that matches surveillance images against a database of billions of internet-scraped photos and returns links to social media profiles where matching images were found… I get a clear view.

…a US company that scrapes the internet and adds all of the faces it can find in photos and videos to its database. It claims to have collected more than 60 billion photos.

Evidence What It Shows Source
Lipps has no ND criminal record, no ND driver’s license, has never been to North Dakota ND BCI’s facial recognition repository (mugshots, corrections photos, ND driver’s license photos) cannot contain her image. The match came from a system with access to non-government photo databases. FBI-BCI MOU (House Oversight, 2017); WDAY/InForum
Detective reviewed Lipps’ social media accounts immediately after the FR match The software returned social media links as part of the match output. Clearview AI’s specific product returns the source URLs of social media profiles and news sites where matching images were found. No state or federal mugshot-based FR system does this. Fargo police file obtained by WDAY via open records request
The same software flagged Lipps in both a Fargo case and a West Fargo case Both departments accessed the same tool. This suggests a shared subscription, shared state-level access, or the same commercial product purchased independently. InForum, March 13, 2026
West Fargo Police used Clearview AI in free trials (confirmed 2021) West Fargo is a documented Clearview user. If the “same software” returned the same match for both Fargo and West Fargo, the simplest explanation is both used Clearview. Valley News Live, April 2021; BuzzFeed News
North Dakota BCI was identified as a Clearview AI user (2021) The BCI, the “state partner” Zibolski referenced, refused to confirm or deny use, saying it would not comment on investigation tactics. Valley News Live, April 2021; BuzzFeed News
Bismarck Police and Devils Lake Police also used Clearview AI Clearview AI was circulating widely through North Dakota law enforcement by 2020-2021, via free trials marketed directly to individual officers. Valley News Live, April 2021; BuzzFeed News
Dilworth PD (6 miles from Fargo) signed a three-year Clearview AI contract in September 2025 Clearview was actively marketing in the Fargo metro during the exact period of the Lipps investigation. The company “pitched its facial recognition software” directly to Dilworth. InForum, September 2025
Zibolski said Fargo PD “does not have facial recognition technology” but uses “partners” This is the standard distancing language used by agencies that access Clearview through individual officer accounts or partner agencies. The NYPD used identical framing — no “institutional relationship” while individual officers ran thousands of searches. InForum, September 2025; BuzzFeed News
Clearview offered free trials to individual officers, often without departmental knowledge Agencies nationwide were caught unaware that their officers had signed up. BuzzFeed identified 34 organizations where officials didn’t know employees were using Clearview until reporters asked. This is the mechanism that lets a chief truthfully say his department “does not have” the technology. BuzzFeed News, April 2021
No regulation, no tracking in North Dakota The ACLU of North Dakota confirmed there is no pending legislation on AI in police investigations. The ND Commission on Legal Counsel for Indigents confirmed how often AI is used in criminal cases is “unknown because it is not tracked.” The FR algorithms are proprietary and cannot be cross-examined. InForum, March 14, 2026

We’ve Seen This Before

The closest documented precedent is the Randal Quran Reid case. In November 2022, Reid was pulled over in Georgia and arrested for stealing designer handbags in Louisiana — a state he had never visited. The arrest warrant was based on a Clearview AI facial recognition match. Facial recognition was never mentioned in the warrant documents. Reid spent six days in jail and thousands on legal fees before the case collapsed. The charges came from Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, which used Clearview directly.

Lipps and Reid share the same architecture: a Clearview match on a person who has never been to the jurisdiction, arrest across state lines, no corroborating investigation before charges, and no mention of the specific technology in court filings. The difference is duration. Reid was out in six days. Lipps was held for 163.

Where the Name Will Come From

Lipps is working with two lawyers, including one based in Minneapolis, on a civil lawsuit. Discovery in that case will force disclosure of the vendor, the contract or access agreement, the search logs, and the match confidence score. The Cass County State’s Attorney’s office has refused to answer whether AI facial recognition alone is sufficient to establish probable cause. Fargo’s mayor declined to answer whether the police chief’s sudden retirement was related to the case.

The name is already visible in the negative space. A state mugshot database cannot match a person who isn’t in it. A system that returns social media profiles as output is a system that scraped them as input. Four agencies in the immediate region are documented Clearview users. Two of them — West Fargo and the BCI — are the exact “local and state partners” the chief named as his department’s access point.

Every question about this case converges on the same answer. The only people who won’t say it out loud are the ones who signed the affidavit.

xAI is DOA: Elon Musk Just Made the Cybertruck of AI

Elon Musk whined two days ago that his xAI “was not built right first time around” and “is being rebuilt from the foundations up.”

Source: Twitter

That sounds familiar to anyone who knows the story of the man who says everything is very soon to be delivered, yet never delivers. Tesla has never been built right, and is awash in design defect lawsuits, unable to stop itself killing people unnecessarily.

Ten of twelve xAI co-founders have skipped out of Dodge (similar to DOGE). Ten of TWELVE. Was it a start-up by committee?

His flagship AI product can’t compete in the market, just like his cars, his solar panels, his batteries, his… list goes on and on. Cheap, rushed, and sub-standard. The leader of his new AI “rebuild” project lasted just sixteen days before skipping Musk town too.

Naturally, SpaceX and Tesla loyalists are the ones being cannibalized to clean up the mess by finding someone, anyone, to fire at xAI other than Elon Musk. Expect a lot of heads to roll so Elon can keep his own for another future failure.

Source: Twitter

Perhaps most notably, six weeks ago, Tesla itself was defrauded to inflate xAI. It poured $2 billion of its shareholder money into what? Then SpaceX immediately acquired the shareholder investment to artificially generate a $250 billion valuation ahead of an attempt to IPO. Now Musk is telling investors all that money his left hand put into an opaque xAI box, which his right hand then valued extremely high, turned out to be totally worthless. Empty box, value disappearing trick. Magic! That thing he just sold both Tesla and SpaceX on, is called so “not built right” now that it’s… worthless.

In other words, just another day of Musk oil.

None of this yet seems to matter to the Pentagon, which itself was caught blowing tens of millions on steak and lobster dinner parties.

The $200 million Pentagon contract is as active as Hegseth’s reported daytime drinking habits. The GenAI.mil integration proceeds on schedule. Three million military and civilian personnel will be expected to say they don’t know how or why they are bombing girls’ schools, while using the “Mechahitler” genocide-promoting Grok of Elon Musk at Impact Level 5.

The Cybertruck of Hamburgers

On Wednesday, SFGATE visited the Tesla Diner in West Hollywood to investigate who, other than Pete Hegseth, would want a $40 double cheeseburger combo. Eight months after its grand opening, the reporter found a handful of customers with bored staff cleaning an empty red carpet. The head chef, like the xAI committee of founders, left within six months. The Optimus robot billed as the future of popcorn delivery is gone. The obnoxiously promoted 24/7 operation dropped to eighteen hours within two weeks of opening. Even the menu was slashed weeks after launch — blamed, naturally, on “unprecedented demand.”

Musk boasted that when the diner “turns out well,” Tesla would open locations in major cities worldwide. It turned out as well as the Cybertruck. Even protesters can’t be bothered to pay attention anymore.

This is the Elon Musk “success” template for all his brands. Announce a spectacle with “coming soon”. Extract investments from suckers. Slash the offering and slip the delivery. Ignore key personnel leaving and fire the rest to cook the books. Keep a shell running with hype and move on to the next announcement.

The most obvious and embarrassing levels yet are xAI. It makes American regulators look like a joke for expecting the market to stop Musk. Founded with twelve co-founders citing infinite ambitions. Undeservedly handed $2 billion from Tesla shareholders and $200 million in Pentagon contracts, only to be merged into SpaceX to cover up the mistakes.

The diner still has a building on Santa Monica Boulevard. xAI still has a government contract. Neither will ever work, and yet neither will be shut down.

When Product Isn’t the Product

The Electrek article covering Musk’s admission includes an ARC AGI chart showing xAI significantly behind everyone. Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are crushing both performance and cost, while Elon Musk can’t get it up. TechCrunch reports the immediate trigger for the latest firings was Musk’s frustration that his coding tools couldn’t keep up, and his immediate reaction was to blame the people he hired. The two co-founders who left this week, Zihang Dai and Guodong Zhang, departed after Musk exposed his inability to accept blame.

But the Pentagon didn’t actually grant xAI an inside deal for its coding tools. The Pentagon bought a swastika (X) data pipe.

The Defense Department’s own announcement reveals the deal: users will gain “real‑time global insights from the X platform, providing War Department personnel with a decisive information advantage.”

Not better reasoning. Not better code. Not AI. Access to social media content owned by the same man who ran DOGE with access to all competitor contracting data.

Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI each got the same $200 million ceiling. Musk used foreign investors to acquire something the others didn’t have, then sold access to it: a live feed from a platform that is becoming a safe haven for regime-aligned disinformation and information warfare, repackaged as “situational awareness.”

What the Pentagon Actually Ordered

The SatNews analysis identified this sad reality in December: the deal cements the “Musk Stack” — SpaceX, Starlink, xAI — as a vertically integrated super-prime contractor, creating a single point of power failure and unprecedented vendor leverage over U.S. defense architecture. The launch pad, the satellite, the communications link, and now the analytical engine, all controlled by one right-wing radical. That’s not a procurement failure. That’s a procurement outcome with a political objective.

Katie Miller, wife of Trump’s deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, was given a job at xAI despite no relevant experience, to falsely advertise Grok as the “only truth-seeking AI available to the US Government.” Her obvious lie should be illegal. Then a contract “came out of nowhere,” as Senator Warren documented. There was no xAI track record in government contracting. All it was selling was data, and political access.

The product was never the product. The sale is the pipeline: ideological alignment laundered through tech procurement, vendor lock-in sold as innovation, and social media surveillance feed billed as intelligence.

Broken by Design

Consider the full sequence.

  1. Creates xAI by committee
  2. Diverts resources
  3. Tesla invests $2B
  4. Merges into SpaceX
  5. Admits never worked
  6. Fires others
  7. Contract continues

Musk founded xAI despite Tesla’s own AI being well underway and better staffed and positioned. He confused and diverted talent and resources into a “better” thing. Tesla’s board foolishly dumps $2 billion into the gamble, and then he admits afterwards it never was built right. It’s all a chaotic relationship-dependency, attachment abuse, with nothing to do with actual technology.

The early user surge of xAI in fact came from criminals, lax regulation of Grok’s ability to produce sexual and even abusive imagery, per TechCrunch. The company generated CSAM after Musk ordered all the content safety removed. It’s under investigation by the UK, France, India, Malaysia, Canada, and Brazil because they aren’t run by the Epstein Files men. This is the company whose California Attorney General issued a cease and desist for child exploitation content.

The Pentagon chose the worst technology, which not only can’t perform, it’s become a cesspool of CSAM and Nazism. Expect next they’ll be signing a burger deal with Tesla diner.

The Fantasy of a Forever Rebuild

Musk declared he would drive cross-country without touching a steering wheel by 2017. He declared he would land his ship on Mars by 2018 because NASA was too slow due to their quality concerns.

So of course we should believe he will have all his coding tools ready by mid-year.

He’s apparently found two people from Cursor willing to take his investors’ money to figure it out. He’s reviewing all the rejected job applications and begging people to come get fired. He’s naming a project “Macrohard” because he thinks if he makes his mistakes funny, such as a lame reference to Microsoft, they won’t land on him.

The remaining co-founders, Manuel Kroiss and Ross Nordeen, are staying for unclear reasons. Using SpaceX to send CSAM into space? Front row seats to watch a CEO running six companies into the ground?

At the huge ostentatious Tesla Diner, a staff member spends an afternoon cleaning an empty red carpet that leads to a door that almost nobody walks through. It’s a perfect metaphor for Musk’s growing legacy as the worst businessman in history.

The latest estimates are that Elon Musk’s anti-government aggression through “DOGE” cuts has killed over 500K children.

The Silicon Valley Adherents: “I Don’t Think, Therefore I Use AI”

The New York Times published a long piece by Clive Thompson on how AI is transforming programming. It’s like hearing someone drag their nails on a philosophy chalkboard in an attempt to erase centuries of human progress.

Developers at Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and startups describe a world where they barely need to write code anymore. They prompt a servile machine. They review from a distance, as if pleased as punch to be sipping on the veranda as all the work is done by others. They describe what they want in English and turn their cotton-pickin’ agents loose because of a newfangled device that automates “quality” tests for them. One developer reports being 10x to 100x more productive than if they did the work themselves. Another calls it liberation. That’s the language of Civil War, for those who study how Caty Green’s invention of an automation machine to end slavery (cotton ‘ngin) was stolen from her and inverted into the expansion and preservation of slavery instead. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

A quick back-of-napkin sketch you likely would never see in the current nose-to-grindstone West-coast tech scene

The article frames it all through a history of “layers of abstraction” in modern programming alone. Assembly gave way to Python, Python is giving way to English. Each layer makes the previous skill set less necessary while making output more abundant. Thompson treats this as history of programming languages, with no connection to the human condition in technology domains.

The problem with developers leaning so heavily on AI companies today is so much bigger and more dangerous than what the NYT reports.

Abstraction Is Civilization

Abstraction isn’t a feature of software engineering. It’s the operating logic of every major technological transition. Who makes fire anymore instead of pushing a button? Who carries water in a bucket instead of turning a tap? The mechanism disappears into the interface. The knowledge doesn’t vanish — it gets embedded in infrastructure and then forgotten by its users. That’s not a side effect. That’s the definition of progress.

What Thompson documents without quite naming is the moment when the act of instructing machines itself becomes the thing being abstracted away. Each layer makes the previous layer’s expertise less economically necessary. And each layer moves users further from the substrate — the actual material they’re working with.

This has a name, and a book, and the book is one nobody in Silicon Valley seems to be reading but should immediately.

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

Robert Pirsig with his motorcycle

Robert Pirsig’s 1974 Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance is an attack on the split between what he calls romantic and classical understanding. The romantic rides the motorcycle and enjoys the wind. The classicist understands the engine and can fix it. Pirsig’s argument isn’t that one is better. It’s that Quality requires both, and a civilization that treats them as separate categories is already in trouble.

The romantic who can’t maintain the machine becomes dependent on systems he can’t evaluate. The classicist who can’t see the whole loses the capacity to ask whether the machine should exist.

What Thompson’s article documents, without the Pirsig lens, is the entire software industry migrating from classical to romantic understanding of its own product. The developers he interviews are thrilled to stop maintaining the engine. One tech executive, Anil Dash, provides the framing the piece hangs on: in coding, AI takes away the drudgery and leaves the soulful parts to you.

Pirsig would recognize this immediately as the exact attitude he spent 400 pages diagnosing as the root of the problem.

The motorcycle maintenance parallel is almost literal. Pirsig’s narrator watches his friends refuse to learn how their BMW works, then get stranded and resentful when it breaks. The vibe coders in Thompson’s piece are writing software they can’t read, shipping code they can’t debug, and calling it liberation. Pirsig’s friends called their ignorance freedom from technology too.

And Pirsig’s answer that care, attentiveness, and direct engagement with the material is the quality actually maps cleanly onto the question of what happens when nobody in the production chain can tell you whether the output is good.

The Drudgery Is the Curriculum

The piece profiles junior developers who have never worked without AI and frames them as the fortunate generation. Pirsig would frame them as people who learned to drive without ever opening the hood. Some will be fine drivers. None will become mechanics. And you won’t know which ones could have, because the pathway that would have revealed it no longer exists.

You need mechanics and drivers. Some people can be both. You don’t have to understand a spark plug to drive, but someone does. The path to becoming a mechanic is through the drudgery — you learn what a function does by writing one badly, debugging it, rewriting it. The “soulful part” Dash celebrates — taste, judgment, knowing whether the output is good — is developed through the very labor being automated away.

You don’t have to understand a spark plug to drive. But someone does. And the person who becomes that someone does it by working with spark plugs, not by describing spark plugs to an oracle.

The German education system has an answer to this. The Ausbildung system treats craft mastery as a legitimate intellectual achievement, not a consolation prize for people who didn’t make it to university. A Meister has a protected title, a defined body of knowledge, and social standing that reflects actual competence. The system assumes society needs people who understand the substrate, and builds institutions to produce them.

The Anglo-American model does the opposite. It treats abstraction as the only direction of advancement. The person who understands the engine is supposed to aspire to stop touching it. Management is the reward for competence. The whole incentive structure says: get away from the material as fast as you can.

Which is exactly the value system driving this moment. The developers in Thompson’s article aren’t just adopting a tool. They’re enacting a cultural assumption that proximity to the machine is low-status work. Prompting is management. Coding is labor. The celebration isn’t really about productivity. It’s about class migration.

The Oldest Abstraction Layer

The pattern goes much deeper than software. The Church as an abstraction layer is a systemic abuse platform. It sat between people and knowledge the same way the API sits between the developer and the code. You don’t read scripture yourself, you receive interpretation. You don’t investigate nature, you accept doctrine. The interface was the institution, and the institution’s power depended on nobody going around it to touch the substrate directly.

Descartes’ move was radical precisely because he said: I can reason from the ground up, without the interface. Cogito ergo sum is a mechanic’s statement. I’m going to open the hood myself. And it nearly got him killed! He watched what the Church did to Galileo for “Dialogues on the Two World Systems” and delayed publishing for years.

Galileo’s book was banned, and he was sentenced to a light regimen of penance and imprisonment at the discretion of church inquisitors. After one day in prison, his punishment was commuted to “villa arrest” for the rest of his life. He died in 1642. More than 300 years would pass before the church admitted Galileo was right and cleared his name of heresy [after 13 years of internal debate, in 1992].

Speaking of being killed for being intelligent, the women whom the Church targeted and burned as “witches” were, in large part, people with empirical substrate knowledge like herbalism, midwifery, and local ecology. They understood how things actually worked at the material level, which was perceived by the Church as a threat to their domination over obedient, unthinking adherents. The “witches” were in fact simply the mechanics of their day, who understood how things actually worked and why. The most intelligent women were eliminated not because their knowledge was wrong but because they were unmediated. They didn’t route through the hierarchical authorized abstraction layer of a few men who demanded total control. The threat was never any actual “magic” or “evil”. The threat only was an ability to think, to reason, and therefore freedom and independence from unthinking Church adherents.

One example is these women had brooms to sweep and clean with, and they had cats to keep vermin away. The Church ran disinformation attacks on brooms and cats, using it to burn women to death because of their ability to maintain healthy living. Killing so many women and their cats directly led to the great plague deaths, given an explosion of filthy flea-infested rats.

The ability for thought was the drudgery the Church tried to prevent. Independent reasoning was turned into heresy. Direct observation was denounced as witchcraft. The abstraction layer’s first priority has always been to make going around it structurally impossible, today what venture capitalists call their “digital moats”, to redefine competence only as fluency in an allowed interface. “She’s a witch! Does she float?” is the comedic version as famously depicted by Monty Python. If a woman had learned how to swim, she was a witch and had to be burned to death. If she hadn’t learned to swim, she drowned. The Church used double-binds to kill those with intelligence and independence:

Brands as Religions, Models as Priests

Shine a proper historical spotlight on Silicon Valley and you should see exactly what AI is doing for the venture capitalists. The priest class had specific structural features: they controlled access to the text, they interpreted it for you, they told you the interpretation was correct, and you had no independent way to verify. The model does all four.

The brand-as-religion parallel explains the loyalty Thompson documents. Those developers aren’t just using a tool. They’re expressing faith. The agent says “Implementation complete!” and they believe it the same way a congregant believes the benediction. One developer maintains what Thompson calls “a stern Ten Commandments” — behavioral rules for his AI agent — and discovers that emotional language mysteriously improves performance without understanding why. That’s not engineering. That’s liturgy.

The dependency structure is identical too. The Church’s power wasn’t primarily theological. It was infrastructural. Once it controlled the hospitals, the schools, the record-keeping, the calendar, you couldn’t leave even if you stopped believing. You were locked in by integration, not conviction. Which is the model provider strategy in plain sight: get into the IDE, the workflow, the deployment pipeline, make yourself the substrate of daily practice. At that point belief is optional. Dependency is sufficient.

Pirsig’s Quality, Descartes’ cogito, the herbalist’s direct knowledge of what the plant does are all the same move. Going around the abstraction layer to touch the thing itself. And in every era, the abstraction layer’s response is the same: make that move unnecessary, then impossible, then unthinkable.

Thompson’s article ends by suggesting that “abstraction may be coming for us all.” He’s right. The question he doesn’t ask is who is represented by those taking control over the public abstraction layer, and what happens to those being forcibly pushed onto the “other” side.

Historian protip: Abstraction layers are the preferred instruments of authoritarians committing mass violence.

How JD Vance Pushed America Into Endless War With Iran

Two days before bombs hit Tehran, on February 28th, JD Vance sat in a White House planning meeting and advocated for the most aggressive option on the table: “go big and go fast” was the Vance push, White House sources told the press. Not a limited strike.

Not a diplomatic offramp. All in.

This is the same JD Vance who wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed titled “Trump’s Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars.”

The same Vance who told a podcast audience in October 2024 that war with Iran would be “a huge distraction of resources” and “massively expensive.”

The same Vance who called himself a “skeptic of foreign interventions” in the Washington Post just one day before the planning meeting where he pushed to escalate to an unprovoked, illegal full scale war with Iran.

The retrospective rewrite and cynical disinformation project is already underway to cover his tracks. Sources “close to the Vice President” told CBS that Vance was “personally against the strikes” but argued that if they happened, the operation should go big. His earnest advocacy for a maximum strike option is in fact what made the “if” question moot. Trump cynically called it “no aborts“.

“Operation Epic Fury is approved,” Mr. Trump said, according to the Times. “No aborts. Good luck.”

The recent Vance disinformation campaign transforms a primary advocate into a reluctant realist. It’s the sad McNamara move of the Vietnam War. Oppose in private as rational, escalate in practice as political, publish the memoir later claiming the escalation was someone else.

How Robert McNamara Came to Regret the War He Escalated: The ‘architect of the Vietnam war’ never formally apologized, but struggled with its consequences for the rest of his life

The evidentiary record already makes this harder to run than McNamara’s Vietnam version.

The Ledger

Date Statement
Early 2023 WSJ op-ed: “Trump’s Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars.”
September 2024 Pennsylvania rally: vote Trump to prevent “God forbid a world war.”
October 2024 Podcast: “Our interest, I think very much, is in not going to war with Iran.” Called it “a huge distraction of resources” and “massively expensive.”
February 27, 2026 Washington Post interview: “no chance” of prolonged conflict. Called himself a “skeptic of foreign interventions.”
February 28, 2026 White House planning meeting: per NYT, “intensely questioned” Joint Chiefs and CIA — but did not oppose the strike.
March 1, 2026 Strikes launch. Vance in the Situation Room. Silent on X for 48 hours while every other senior official issued public support.
March 3, 2026 Fox News: “President Trump will not get the United States into a years-long conflict with no clear objective.”
March 3, 2026 White House sources reveal Vance architected the “go big and go fast” full scale war. Vance sources try to counterspin he opposed the war in private.

Read the table again, top to bottom.

That sequence is the argument.

Source Asymmetry

The competing leaks have different credibility profiles. White House sources had no incentive to inflate Vance’s hawkishness. If anything, Trump’s inner circle benefits from showing the VP was on board — it demonstrates consensus, not division. Vance’s people, by contrast, had every incentive to minimize. When two sets of anonymous sources contradict each other, ask who benefits from each version. The answer tells you which one to trust.

Trump himself split the difference on camera, saying he and Vance were “philosophically, a little bit different” but that Vance was “quite enthusiastic.” That’s not a man covering for his VP. That’s a man who doesn’t think there’s anything to cover for. We know Trump and what he does if he sniffs disloyalty to his warmongering.

The Photo

The White House released two photos of Rubio with Trump at Mar-a-Lago as the strikes launched. One photo showed Vance in the Situation Room, the vice-presidential seal where the presidential one normally sits, flanked by Gabbard and Bessent.

He was not sidelined. He was operational.

That image is counterproof to any future claim that he wasn’t really in favor or involved.

The Pattern

Officials who privately oppose a war, then advocate for its most aggressive execution once it becomes inevitable, then retroactively claim they were the voice of caution have a name in the historical record.

The McNamara play.

Robert McNamara’s detailed private doubts about Vietnam didn’t surface usefully until In Retrospect was published in 1995, three decades and millions of deaths after the doubts allegedly began.

Harold Ford’s CIA review of the memoir showed how it worked: McNamara selectively quoted the Board of National Estimates to make it appear they had confirmed the domino thesis, when they had actually questioned it. He cited only the parts that supported his position and omitted the conclusions that contradicted it. Ford correctly called McNamara out for standing history on its head.

The Vance version is already running: CBS sources frame “go big” as a conditional position taken only after personal opposition failed, while the White House sources who were in the room describe advocacy, not reluctance. The selective quotation and disinformation spin hasn’t even waited for a memoir. It’s happening in real time, through Vance unleashing his anonymous source army, before his war is a week old.

The private doubt is not the interesting part, even as it is developed into a footnote. The public action is the actual record, and JD Vance pushed “big” into another endless war. Colin Powell’s private reservations about Iraq didn’t prevent him from delivering the UN presentation that sold the war. We remember him for one and not the other.

Vance built his political career on claiming he opposed exactly the thing he did when tested. The WSJ op-ed, the rally speeches, the podcasts were not offhand remarks. They were the architecture of a brand, which all landed the opposite way of what he said. The brand was cashed in for an unnecessary war he helped escalate without clear objectives.

The Rivalry Frame Is the Trap

Most coverage has fallen into drama about a Vance-Rubio rivalry: who’s up, who’s down, who got the better photo op. That’s the “reality” TV frame of palace intrigue that displaces interest in accountability. Whether Vance or Rubio is better positioned for 2028 doesn’t mean much. The question is actually what Vance advocated in the room on February 28, and whether the war he helped shape matches the war he told Americans would never happen.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, of all people, identified the core issue:

I want to know where the hell is JD Vance… Because if they stand by and are silent, they’re turning their back on the same words they said.

When MTG is the one holding you to your anti-war commitments, the inversion is complete.

Vance’s silence was not indecision, it was disinformation.

He is plotting a way to preserve his anti-war brand for 2028 in the shadow of the war he helped escalate into a quagmire. Generating Trump-like flip-flop ambiguity about where he stands on anything is more valuable to him than clarity. That calculation depends on the war timeline staying blurry.

The timeline is clear. Vance said go big into Iran and he owns it now and forever.